A little over a year and a half has passed since the catastrophic wildfires of 2023 significantly impacted Maui, and the island is now grappling with a severe downturn in its tourism sector. The flames not only ravaged the landscape but also dealt a crippling blow to an economy heavily reliant on its tourism industry. In response to this calamity, Hawaii’s Governor Josh Green has pledged a substantial investment of $6.3 million to initiate tourism recovery efforts, aiming to reinvigorate a sector that has been struggling to rebound from the flames’ aftermath.
According to the latest statistics from CoStar, the situation is alarming: Maui experienced the steepest decline in hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) across all U.S. markets, dropping an alarming 13.2%. This downturn reflects a dual decline in both hotel occupancy rates and the average daily rate (ADR), marking a concerning trend for a state that thrives on tourism.
The situation in Maui is now more critical than ever, especially when considering the potential repercussions from recent wildfires in Los Angeles County. This region is a vital market for Hawaii, contributing significantly to visitor arrivals. In fact, Los Angeles accounts for nearly 9.1% of all visitors to Hawaii and an astonishing 30.2% of all visitors from California. Therefore, the consequences of the recent wildfires in L.A. could further impede Maui’s chances of a rapid recovery.
Statistical analysis reveals that Maui welcomed approximately 2.35 million visitors in 2024, a 6% decrease from the previous year and a staggering 23.4% below the pre-pandemic levels of 2019 when visitor numbers touched 3.1 million. Officials from the Hawaii Tourism Authority and the state’s Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism (DBEDT) are acutely aware of these alarming trends. DBEDT Director James Kunane Tokioka has expressed deep concerns about the state of tourism in Maui, especially regarding the notable drop in hotel occupancy rates in West Maui.
Industry analysts, including Michael Stathokostopoulos from CoStar Group, present a mixed bag of projections for the future of Maui’s tourism. While a modest growth rate of over 5% in RevPAR is predicted for the next three years—primarily due to an increase in rates for high-end accommodations—the forecast also indicates a continued decline in occupancy levels. The underlying issue remains: the short to medium-term demand for hotel rooms is not expected to grow substantially.
These projections serve as a stark reminder that any signs of recovery may be slow and incremental. However, optimism continues to surface among certain industry leaders. Jeff Wagoner, CEO of Outrigger Hospitality Group, has noted early signs of recovery within the hospitality sector in Maui during 2025, reflecting a cautious optimism for a rebound.
Wagoner’s perspective offers a glimmer of hope for residents and businesses alike. He highlights an uptick in occupancy rates in Outrigger’s West Maui properties, indicating a potential turnaround. His portrayal of “green shoots” materializing within the tourism sector is vital, as it reflects fundamental resilience among both businesses and the local population, underscoring the importance of preserving jobs which are integral to the community’s well-being.
The vital investment of $6.3 million in marketing funds is viewed by stakeholders as a critical step toward revitalizing regional tourism. Although marketing strategies have yet to be finalized, the focus will likely be on executing approaches that have proven effective in attracting visitors back to Maui. Tokioka emphasizes the interconnectedness of tourism in Hawaii, observing that marketing efforts targeted at Maui may inadvertently benefit the entire state, encouraging visitors to explore multiple islands within their travel itineraries.
As Hawaii embarks on this ambitious recovery plan, it is imperative that stakeholders continuously evaluate the effectiveness of these marketing initiatives. Reinforcing Maui’s identity as a holiday destination while addressing lingering apprehensions among potential travelers will be a delicate balancing act. Getting “more heads in the beds,” as Tokioka aptly puts it, involves directly addressing not only the economic deficits but also the emotional and psychological scars left by the wildfires.
While Maui’s journey to recovery faces numerous hurdles, there remains a network of hope, resilience, and strategic planning poised to guide the island back to its former glory. The road will undoubtedly be long, but with focused efforts, Maui can once again reclaim its status as a premier tourist destination. The response from the local community, coupled with an effective marketing campaign, could prove pivotal in turning the tide in favor of revival.